As the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb in the Red Sea both face the prospect of being simultaneously closed, the ultra-large container ship sector may soon see a new wave of order placements to offset the growing trend of detours around the Red Sea.
According to TradeWinds, Maersk of Denmark, the world’s second-largest container shipping company, and CMA CGM of France, the third-largest, are currently holding preliminary discussions with Chinese shipyards to explore plans for building ultra-large container vessels. The two companies are evaluating three vessel size options—19,000 TEU, 22,000 TEU, and 24,000 TEU—with newbuilds expected to be powered by dual-fuel LNG propulsion. Each company is considering ordering approximately six to twelve ships.
Industry insiders say that Maersk and CMA CGM are currently in the early stages of their inquiries, with ship specifications and order quantities yet to be finalized. At this stage, discussions are primarily focused on delivery schedules under various options.
Although the specific shipyard involved has not yet been disclosed, industry insiders generally believe that China’s major container‑ship builders are all likely to vie for the contract. Given that domestic large‑scale shipyards currently hold a robust order book, delivery schedules for newbuildings are expected to extend well into 2030—or even beyond.
For reference, Clarkson’s data show that the current newbuilding price for an LNG‑dual‑fuel 22,000/24,000 TEU container vessel stands at approximately US$261.5 million (about RMB 1.777 billion), down 4% from US$273 million in the same period last year.
Just last month, the world’s largest container shipping company, Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), signed a contract with Hengli Heavy Industries to build 10 plus 10 20,000 TEU dual-fuel LNG‑powered container vessels. This is the largest container ship order of the year, with the first batch of 10 ships scheduled for delivery in 2029.
Previously, the market generally believed that, as the ordering cycle for ultra-large container vessels was drawing to a close, Mediterranean Shipping Company’s latest order was largely an isolated case. However, analysts note that Maersk and CMA CGM have both begun soliciting quotes, suggesting that the major shipping lines are reassessing their future capacity strategies. By bolstering their fleets with larger vessels, they aim to mitigate the impact of the prolonged Red Sea rerouting while securing access to increasingly scarce new‑build delivery slots.
In fact, the global container ship newbuilding market remains robust this year. According to Clarkson data, as of now, the global container ship order book stands at 1,686 vessels totaling 13.09 million TEU, a record high, accounting for approximately 38.77% of the existing fleet’s capacity.
However, this year’s new orders are concentrated primarily in the small- and medium-sized vessel segments. According to Clarkson’s data, a total of 376 container ships have been contracted globally so far this year, but only 32 of them are ultra-large container vessels of 18,000 TEU or above—far fewer than the 92 such vessels ordered during the same period last year. Notably, all 32 ultra‑large container ship orders this year have been awarded to Chinese shipyards, whereas last year both South Korea’s HD Hyundai Heavy Industries and Hanwha Ocean secured contracts for these mega‑ships.
In addition to the 10 vessels ordered by Mediterranean Shipping Company from Hengli Heavy Industries, this year’s ultra-large container ship orders also include eight 18,600 TEU dual-fuel LNG‑powered container ships contracted by Maersk with New Times Shipbuilding, as well as 12 18,000 TEU dual-fuel LNG‑powered vessels placed by COSCO Shipping with Jiangnan Shipyard.
The three companies mentioned above, together with CMA CGM, which has recently been the subject of inquiry‑pricing rumors, all rank among the top four global container shipping carriers in terms of fleet capacity.
Jonathan Roach, a container‑market analyst at shipping brokerage Braemar, said that this wave of potential orders does not indicate that carriers believe the Red Sea crisis will resolve in the near term; rather, these bookings are effectively a hedge against another scenario—namely, a prolonged continuation of the crisis. By now, it appears increasingly likely that detours around the Red Sea will become a persistent constraint on the global container‑shipping market.
Roach noted that, should ships continue to take the Cape of Good Hope route in the long term, ultra-large container vessels would help optimize capacity allocation on east–west routes and enhance transport efficiency.
Meanwhile, the persistent tightness in shipyard capacity is another key factor driving container shipping lines to plan ahead. At present, available delivery slots for vessels between 2028 and 2029 are extremely limited, while this year’s record-breaking surge in tanker orders is also competing for access to large dry-dock facilities. As a result, container carriers must secure delivery windows well in advance; otherwise, they may soon face a situation where no ships are available for order.
However, he also stressed that this round of inquiries should not be viewed as the start of a new arms race in ultra-large container ships. Going forward, order volumes are expected to remain relatively restrained, with leading shipbuilders likely adding only a few to a dozen vessels each, rather than repeating the large-scale expansion seen in the previous cycle.
He believes these new vessels are more akin to “insurance capacity.” If routing around the Cape of Good Hope becomes the norm in the future, container shipping lines will need to moderately expand their fleet with larger ships as a reserve. Meanwhile, with shipyard delivery lead times continuing to lengthen and newbuild prices unlikely to decline in the near term, securing vessel slots now is a more prudent strategy than waiting for market conditions to improve.
